Is Closing Schools Going to Help?
As the COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread around the world, there’s more and more talk of closing schools. For example, China has kept many of its schools closed with Hong Kong schools remaining shut down until April. The answer is- IT DEPENDS. But probably not.
If an outbreak starts at a school and you are trying to keep it from spreading beyond the school, shutting down the school may be the way to go. But things are quite different when there is already an epidemic or a pandemic occurring. If a virus is already running around outside of schools, can closing schools in some way reduce the size or duration of an epidemic? As detailed in a publication in theJournal of Public Health Management and Practice, the simulation experiments showed that in order to significantly reduce the size or duration of an epidemic, you have to keep schools closed long enough until the virus is no longer actively circulating.
Closing a school could prevent a number of kids from getting infected early during the epidemic. This in turn may maintain a group of kids that are susceptible to future infection. Thus, re-opening the schools later while the virus is still circulating could as a result re-fuel and extend an epidemic. Also, children are social and are going to congregate. If not at school, someplace else.
The problem is that children have fewer and less severe symptoms of Covid-19. They may not even know they are ill and there by spread the illness to parents and grandparents.
What can we do? Make sure your children wash up AS SOON AS THEY GET HOME. Before they have contact with you or other adults. Make sure they wash up after gymnastics class BEFORE you put them in the car. YOU may want to spend more time in your car than in the lobby. My gym offers a very generous makeup policy, if you or your children do not feel well, stay home, we can make up those classes later.
What is Covid-19 – the illness that started in Wuhan, China?
At Atlantic Gymnastics we take the health and safety of all of our clients and staff very seriously. Here are the FACTS and what we all can do to stay healthy!
Covid- 19 is caused by a member of the coronavirus family. The current strain has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. Many of those initially infected either worked or frequently shopped in the Huanan seafood wholesale market in the center of the Chinese city.
What are the symptoms this coronavirus causes?
The virus can cause pneumonia. Those who have fallen ill are reported to suffer coughs, fever and breathing difficulties. In severe cases there can be organ failure. As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work. Recovery depends on the strength of the immune system. Most of those who have died were already in poor health.
Is the virus being transmitted from one person to another?
China’s national health commission has confirmed human-to-human transmission, and there have been such transmissions elsewhere.
How many people have been affected?
As of 25 February, the outbreak has affected 80,000 people globally. In mainland China there have been 2,663 deaths among 77,658 cases, mostly in the central province of Hubei. More than 12,000 people affected in China have already recovered.
The coronavirus has spread to at least 30 other countries. The most badly affected include Japan, with 850 cases, including 691 from a cruise ship docked in Yokohama, and four deaths. Italy has recorded 229 cases and seven deaths, while South Korea has recorded 893 cases and eight deaths. There have also been deaths in Hong Kong, Taiwan, France, Iran and the Philippines.
Including the cruise evacuees, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is now 60, including the 18 from the Diamond Princess.
Why is this worse than normal influenza, and how worried are the experts?
We don’t yet know how dangerous the new coronavirus is, and we won’t know until more data comes in. The mortality rate is around 2% in the epicenter of the outbreak, Hubei province, and less than that elsewhere. For comparison, seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate below 1% and is thought to cause about 400,000 deaths each year globally. Sars had a death rate of more than 10%. Scientists believe that the mortality rate of Covid-19 is likely LESS than 2% in that some people may have contracted Covid-19 and have such mild symptoms (and recover reasonably fast) that they do not seek medical treatment and therefore are not part of the statistics.
A crucial difference is that unlike flu, there is no vaccine yet for the new coronavirus, which means it is more difficult for vulnerable members of the population – elderly people or those with existing respiratory or immune problems – to protect themselves. Hand-washing and avoiding other people if you feel unwell are important. One sensible step is to get the flu vaccine, which will reduce the burden on health services if the outbreak turns into a wider epidemic.
Is the outbreak a pandemic and should we panic?
No. A pandemic, in WHO terms, is “the worldwide spread of a disease”. The spread of the virus outside China is worrying but not an unexpected development. The WHO has declared the outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern. The key issues are how transmissible this new coronavirus is between people, and what proportion become severely ill and end up in hospital. Often viruses that spread easily tend to have a milder impact. Generally, the coronavirus appears to be hitting older people hardest.
What can we do to prevent the spread of Covid-19 (or any other Virus)?
According to the Center for Disease Control There are steps you can take to reduce your risk of getting sick from viral respiratory infections, and help prevent transmitting infections to others, including:
- Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Do this Before and After Gymnastics Class.
- Do not touch your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands.
- If you are sick- STAY HOME. Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
- Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze, then throw the tissue in the trash and wash your hands.
- Clean and disinfect objects and surfaces.
What is Atlantic doing to keep everyone healthy?
- Instructors wash their hands before and after each class.
- Common areas are cleaned and disinfected regularly (including handles, doors, counters, etc)
- Equipment in the gym is cleaned and disinfected regularly
- They are instructed to STAY HOME if they (or someone in their family) is ill
How the media is contributing to the over reaction
Remember that the media (print, TV, Social media, online) is a Business. They earn revenue through selling commercials and ads. Prices which are based on the viewership and he amount of clicks and shares. If they keep you on edge and nervous- you will keep them tuned in.
This virus is a SERIOUS SITUATION. As Anthony Fauci said yesterday, “We can’t be doing the kinds of things we were doing a few months ago”. We will need to make some lifestyle changes.
I spoke to my cousin in Italy yesterday. She was worried about US? Their news is just as filled with exaggerations. She asked if all the shelves were empty in the stores. She asked if toilet paper was selling for more than $100 and if tampons were more than $300. She asked if the Army was on the street.
Ummmmm- NO.
What are MY plans?
I plan to go on vacation in April to the Caribbean like I always do. I plan on visiting my brother at the end of April for his birthday. I plan to go to Italy in the end of May for a little vacation with family followed by work. I will continue to take all necessary precautions as I have always done.
